Interactive dashboard
Manila, May 2025: the whole city on one ballot
The full analysis in one place: the three races, Isko Moreno's barangay-level landslide, Bam Aquino's senate lead, and the polling gap that hid both. Hover any bar for detail; every chart has a table view.
Elections overview
Senate ballot marks
8.50M
Each voter picks up to 12, implying at least 708K voters.
Mayoral votes
897.3K
The practical count of voters who showed up.
Vice-mayoral votes
874.4K
22.9K fewer than the mayoral race: undervoting.
Barangays in the dataset
895
Manila is usually counted as 896. One barangay is absent from the source data.
Mayor: top 5 of 12 candidates
Ballot-number prefixes dropped; full names in the table view.
Single series, single hue, no legend needed. The remaining 7 candidates share about 4.9K votes, under 0.6%.
Vice mayor: top 5 of 6 candidates
The Isko and Chi tandem carried both races.
Atienza's 66.6% is the highest share of any race on the ballot. The tandem outperformed its own principal.
Senate: Manila's top 15
8.5M marks across a 12-pick ballot, colored by political bloc.
Blocs follow the paper's classification: opposition in blue, everyone else in the context tone. Hover any bar for both denominators, share of marks and share of voters.
Isko's landslide, tiered
Barangays won
822 / 895
91.8% of the city.
Total votes
529.5K
59% of all mayoral votes.
Margin vs Lacuna
339.2K
2.8x the incumbent's entire total.
Challenging barangays
7
Barangays where he fell under 30%, out of 895.
Barangay performance tiers
Mutually exclusive vote-share bands, strongest to weakest.
Ordered bands wear an ordinal ramp of one hue, dark for strong through light for weak, not four unrelated colors.
Strongest and weakest barangays
Top 10 by votes plus the bottom 8.
Color follows the entity; filtering never repaints the survivors.
Bam's upset, reconciled
Barangays won
775 / 895
86.6% win rate.
Total ballot marks
498.2K
First of 66 senate candidates in Manila.
Share of voters
≈55%
498.2K over roughly 897K voters. Over half the city marked him.
Share of all marks
5.86%
Of 8.5M marks. The 12-pick ceiling is 8.33%; he took 70% of the maximum.
The denominator, made visible
Why 5.86% and 55% describe the same result.
On a 12-pick ballot no candidate can exceed one twelfth, 8.33%, of all marks. Bam's 5.86% of marks is 70% of that ceiling. The voter denominator states the same performance as roughly 55%. Both figures describe the same 498,150 marks.
Best and worst barangays by vote share
Bar length is raw votes, which is why some worst-side bars out-length best-side ones. The split is by share, not count.
His best barangay gave him 793 votes. Consistency, not strongholds, built the 498K total.
Why every survey missed
When voters actually decided
Pulse Asia post-election review, May 2025.
62% decided within a week of the election. Everything a weeks-old poll measures is the other 38%.
Campus mock polls vs the real top 15
Mock-poll favourites from UST Artlets and Adamson, and whether they landed in Manila's actual senate top 15.
n = 182 (UST) and n = 538 (Adamson): convenience samples of students, not probability samples of Manila. Two of nine favourites landed.